The Rugby Championship 2018 edition kicks off on the 18th of August 2018, when Australia host New Zealand at the ANZ stadium. We’re going to keep you covered with all the Rugby Championship betting odds, fixtures and even the odd tip!
Rugby Championship Round 4 Betting – Brought to you By Oracle
Springboks v All Blacks
Revenge at Loftus
Springboks v All Blacks at Loftus, this should be a cracker! Three weeks ago the Springboks pulled off a miracle, not even I gave them a chance. Sure I backed the plus and won, but honestly it had been nine long years since the Boks won in New Zealand.
Rassie Erasmus has been the first coach for quite a while that has managed this small feat. All Blacks should have a proper backlash for the Boks, but the Boks have belief, something that has been lacking for almost a decade. The last time the Boks won at home against the old foe was in 2014. Four years ago Patrick Lambie had a pressure kick to win the game.
Last year the Springboks lost by a solitary point, yes it was a dead rubber and although this game is also a dead rubber the Boks do in fact have something to play for.
Freedom Cup
Freedom Cup, a little known trophy that is played for outside of the Rugby Championship. The Freedom Cup does not yet have the stature that the Bledisloe does, but who knows one day it will. Currently the Springboks have had possession of this Cup just twice, the year it started in 2004 and again in 2009. It’s been nine long years, but realistically South Africa have the upper hand this year.
South Africa have won the away leg, all they need to do now is win at Loftus and the Freedom Cup is all theirs. NZ have won it eleven times, there have been two draws, but the holding team keeps it if it has not been won.
The last time these two great nations played at Loftus was twelve years ago in 2006 where the All Blacks won comfortably. 2003 when my eldest son was born was another drubbing by the Al Blacks.
Verdict
South Africa have been given a modest eleven and a half handicap, this may seem high, but in the last few years it has been higher. We have seen plus eighteen before for a home game for the Boks. Considering that the Boks won the reverse fixture one would assume that this handicap is indeed fair.
What does interest me is the 4/1 about the hosts to win on the board. South Africa should stay within this handicap, but and I say but, this is New Zealand we are talking about and you can never go massive here. I have not had a 5 unit play against them and I am unlikely to ever.
My call here will be one of respect, nothing big. I just feel the Boks do have a chance here, and I also feel the price is of reasonable value.
Kick off is scheduled for 17h05 GMT +2 on Saturday at Loftus. The referee for this game will be Angus Gardner (AUS), Click here for the Weather in Pretoria and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #RSAvNZL
Call: Springboks +11.5 at 9/10 for 1 unit and an additional unit on Springboks to win on the board at 4/1
All Blacks v Springboks
Cake Tin Awaits
All Blacks v Springboks in Wellington on Saturday is sure to be a thriller. Fresh from their handicap defeat v Los Pumas, New Zealand have been set a modest 22pt handicap by the Bookies. Springboks beating last week’s Handicap, but losing the two v Los Pumas will be looking to go back to back.
Yes above I have been discussing the handicap markets, obviously NZ have won all three. Australia one and the Boks one. Last week New Zealand played good rugby, but they certainly did not have things go their way. Argentina frustrated them, by simply never giving up.
Springboks played well last week for most of the first half, getting themselves up to an eight point lead. Unfortunately after the dodgy lineout debacle things moved South quickly. Effectively Australia won the rest of the match 16 – 3.
Handre Pollard starts in the Cake Tin, interestingly Jesse Kriel has been switched to wing, and we spoke about this on the What the Ruck show on Tuesday night. This may be a clever move from Rassie. Rassie is under massive pressure.
Pollard & Crotty to Start
In the last two encounters in New Zealand, South Africa have been beaten by more than the twenty two points on offer this week. Prior to that the Springboks although lost, lost by 14 & 4 in 2013 & 2014 respectfully. One of those matches included a RED card to Bismarck.
Ryan Crotty starts this week, and Sonny Bill Williams on the bench, Beauden Barrett is back and there is no space for Richie Mo’unga in the starting twenty three.
The Boks have lost in New Zealand every time since 2009 when the Springboks won by 3 in Hamilton, that was a back to back win in the land of the long white cloud.
Verdict
Twenty Two and a half points is simply the highest handicap we have seen for this fixture ever. One could argue and say it is deserved because NZ have beaten South Africa by fifty seven before. For me it’s a little too much, I believe that the Springboks at this level offer value. Sure NZ have beaten the Aussie by more twice and have beaten the Argentinians by the same, but for me it’s a tad too high, which leads me to my call
Although I am going with the Springboks here, there is the knowledge that the All Blacks are the All Blacks and quite frankly the best in the world by some distance. Can they be beaten, sure they can, and we saw Ireland beat them, the Boks beat them last year. Do I think it will happen this week? No I did not, I just feel that +22.5 is a tad too high.
Kick off is scheduled for 09h35 GMT +2 on Saturday in Wellington. The referee for this game will be Nigel Owens (WAL), Click here for the Weather in Wellington and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #NZLvRSA
Call: Springboks +22.5 at evens for 1 unit
Australia v Argentina Betting Preview
Gold Coast Awaits
Wallabies v Los Pumas up this week in Gold Coast. Wallabies struggled last week, but got a gift try and back to back penalties to secure a five point win over the Boks. The Aussies are now three for three losing their handicaps. Yip that is right, not a single plus arriving v New Zealand and not beating the minus v South Africa.
Los Pumas on the other hand have beaten all three handicaps thrown at them, they have looked the business so far this Championship. Los Pumas like the Wallabies have also only won one game. It does not take a Rocket Scientist to see which team is in form.
1983 some thirty five years ago, the last and only time Los Pumas have won in Australia, I incorrectly pointed out on the video that this result had not happened. The last two occasions in Australia, Argentina have score twenty points, however both times the Wallabies have beaten this handicap.
Can Los Pumas Go One Better?
Mario Ledesma is no mug, he brought the Jaguares over here earlier in the year and won two games, he then went over to NZ and won a couple more. Michael Cheika on the other hand has been poor, losing both handicaps to the All Blacks, in fact by some distance. Losing the series to Ireland, losing three Zip to England the year before, quite frankly how is this chap still employed?
Israel Falau is apparently playing this week, not sure about David Pocock, although like I mentioned last week, Michael Hooper is a great player. Australia just lack something, I am not 100% sure what it is, but they just seems aimless, no game plan.
Verdict
Los Pumas have just been playing their best rugby for some time, the Wallabies on the other hand have not. I know I have gone for Los Pumas in this fixture before. I have lost both times I remember being quite confident. This year I am again confident, in fact so confident that I have ignored the plus ten on offer and gone straight for the board at what can only be considered a very valuable price.
Kick off is scheduled for 12h05 GMT +2 on Saturday in Gold Coast. The referee for this game will be John Lacey (IRE), Click here for the Weather in Gold Coast and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #AUSvARG
Call: Los Pumas on the board at 28/10 for 3 units
Round 3
All Blacks v Los Pumas – New Zealand v Argentina Rugby Betting
Never beaten the All Blacks
Los Pumas take on the world’s best, the world’s best who dispatched of the Wallabies twice. So striking were the Bledisloe games that one cannot wait for this All Blacks v Los Pumas encounter. Los Pumas have never beaten the All Blacks, the closest they have come in twenty six matches, home, away or on a neutral field was a draw in 1986.
Since then Los Pumas have been beaten by less than ten twice, between ten and twenty another nine times. Recently though is what we are more interested in. Since 2011 when Los Pumas joined the Rugby Championship Los Pumas have stayed well within the current handicap set by the Bookies of 27.5 all but once. Los Pumas were beaten by thirty five in Hamilton two years ago.
We are obviously talking about home NZ games here, in 2011 they lost by twenty three, since then it’s been great. If I remember correctly the handicap has always been around twenty sevenish. This week I have to say the value clearly lies with Los Pumas.
Could there be an upset in Nelson?
Mario Ledesma has to be upbeat, he was the coach of the Jaguares winning twice against all the odds v Blues & Chiefs earlier this year. He knows his stuff, he has my respect. Los Pumas have absolutely nothing to lose here.
Statistically speaking, especially for the points punters, Los Pumas have scored more than twelve points on four occasions, in fact over twenty in the last two visits to the land of the long white cloud!
Click here to view the stats between the All Blacks v Los Pumas in NZ courtesy of ESPN Scrum
Verdict
The handicap this week is a bit too big. In fact it is my #BestBetoftheWeek by a country mile. I will be very surprised if Los Pumas get done by more than twenty never mind twenty seven.
My call here is a split bet, OK well almost split, at 18/1 about the freak result I am interested as well as a generously priced twenty three and a half. The latter being a winner in all but one of the last seven home games in NZ.
Call: Los Pumas +23.5 at 4.5 units (Expected price of around 14/10) and Los Pumas on the board at 18/1 for half a unit.
In addition, for those looking for some more value, I suggest backing Los Pumas to win the first half, you should get around the 7/1 or bigger mark, also the HT / FT market is a runner with Los Pumas onto All Blacks, this could be as high as 10/1
Australia v South Africa Rugby championship betting
OK So here we are Bledisloe gone, Boks clean sweep gone. What is left? Second place in the Rugby Championship again?
Wallabies v Springboks has recently been dubbed as the race for second. It looks all too much like that is exactly what it will be. Last year the Springboks went to Aussieland and drew, unbelievably the return fixture produced another draw.
This year the Boks head over there in a cloud of uncertainty. Rassie Erasmus could not have asked for a worse start to his tenure. The result in Durban was expected, but the result in Mendoza was not. Well I certainly was not surprised.
Rugby Lesson?
Wallabies started at home v All Blacks, I for one thought they had a chance, I was wrong. The Aussies got thumped. I was definitely not wrong the second time of asking. New Zealand dealt the rubbish Wallabies a lesson in rugby.
Israel Falau has been dubbed a fifty fifty, but honestly I cannot see him being included in the squad, surely the Aussies don’t want to risk him this early after injury? Maybe they think they need him, maybe they feel he will be ready for los Pumas in a week.
So let’s look at the results Wallabies v Springboks. South Africa in Australia since 2012 has been Aussie 4 – 1 – 1 I know it looks like a Ryder Cup scorecard. Those four wins have yielded only one result over six and that has been the Wallabies winning by 7 in Perth in 2012.
The Boks lost the last two in Brisbane by four and six respectfully and won the other in 2013 by twenty six. That particular game the Wallabies only scored thirteen. That brings me to my prediction this week.
Verdict
I know that SA is hurting, but as mentioned on my live show tonight, the Aussies must be hurting just as bad if not worse. The last thing the Wallabies or the Boks need is another loss. But one of them will lose come Saturday.
At the price being dished out this week I have no other option than to go for what looks like real value. The value for me lies in the fact that the Wallabies have been plying rubbish rugby. I expected Los Pumas to give us a go, so I am not in the camp of crap Boks.
If you are afraid of the Boks just losing, then my Suggestion would be to back them on the handicap of plus five and a half, it is definitely in the race. If you are considering lumping on the wallabies at 4/10 or thereabouts, be aware that this is a race, South Africa most certainly have a chance!
Call: Springboks on the board at an unbelievable 7/4 (1.75/1) for 3 units
Round 2
All Blacks v Wallabies
Bledisloe Two is up on Saturday, probably not what any Wallaby fans are ready for, but it is what it is. Last week the All Blacks gave the Wallabies a rugby lesson, or maybe they did not even notice, such was their poor attitude.
The All Blacks did not do anything special, in fact they played exactly how we the rugby loving public expected. Beauden Barrett was OK, not fantastic just OK. All Blacks started off slowly, in fact it did look like the Wallabies would hit the sheds up.
At HT I was still a Wallabies punter, not sure why, but I was. All it took was a minute or two and the flood gates opened. The Wallabies never looked like scoring, they kicked aimlessly, and they had zero ideas when it came to attack. They simply had no plan.
This week I expect pretty much the same. Mr Cheika at time of writing is still employed. Hanrick suggested on our Live Weekly rugby Chat that it would be difficult to replace Mr Cheika with just thirteen short months before Japan 2019.
Lazy Wallabies
I don’t think one week is enough to get those lazy Wallabies up to standard by game time come Saturday. Bledisloe Two will go the same way as the first plus a couple of tries.
All Blacks have a couple of injuries to worry about, but as any rugby punter knows, there is no such thing as a Weak All Black team. It really does not matter who dons the All Black jersey on Saturday, they will do the business.
The bookies have adjusted their handicap up from a really low ten last week to a somewhat more respectable 22. At twenty two I am a minus punter, in fact it did not take much to swing me. I am so confident here I am calling a play bigger than what has been set.
Verdict
As has become custom, I will again look to a price above the nine to ten line, this week I looking for some 2/1. As alternative handicaps are not out as yet, I will post my play at around 19h00 GMT +2 on Thursday.
Call: All Blacks -29.5 at 18/10 for 3 units
Los Pumas v Springboks
Last night on my Live Weekly Rugby Chat I suggested that Akker van der Merwe was left at home along with Ross Cronje. I was actually incorrect. Akkers is on the plane, and Ross Cronje will be playing for the Lions.
Pollard is also on the plane, this is odd, OK maybe not that odd, but it will be somewhat odd if he starts. Pollard appears low on confidence. Hanrick and Unbiased Rugby both agreed that it was an off day, I need more evidence.
Stats Suggest Plus is a Runner
Los Pumas v Springboks has played out six times since starting in the Rugby Championship. Four of those have arrived within the seven point, nine to ten handicap set by the bookies this week.
In two of those the minus has arrived. One of fourteen and another of eighteen, including the week after the Springboks lost v Los Pumas for the first time!!
The four results mentioned above were, a two pt. win by both the Boks and Los Pumas, a five point win by the Boks and a DRAW. Those who have been following me for a while will know that I do not base my play solely on stats.
Numbers have since an early age come easily to me. However, sometimes stats do show a wider picture that often is blurred by recent performances. South African Super Rugby sides all got done in Argentina. Lions by fourteen, the Bulls by thirty, the Sharks and Stormers by double digits.
Considering that the Springboks should be around twenty points better than their collective Super Rugby sides leads me to believe that this handicap should be around the three to five point line. Current books have the Boks at minus seven, it just feels a tad too high.
Verdict
Although I do not think Los Pumas will win here, more importantly they can. Therefore something to consider, perhaps those of you who like a big punt at a short price should take heed. Los Pumas can win here. Honestly I reckon it will just be a close game, so for that reason I have decided to have a conservative plus.
I will look for the best price I can find about my plus play and because of this I will update this post on Thursday.
Call: Los Pumas +5.5 at 11/10 for 2 uints (Bet Taken at WSB)
Outright Winner odds
South Africa : 7.60
New Zealand : 1.13
Australia : 5.90
Argentina : 65.00
Rugby Championship 2018 Betting Tips
Coming soon!
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Rugby Championship 2018 Fixtures
Springboks: Squad selected for the 2018 Rugby Championship
Forwards :
- Cyle Brink (Loose forward, Emirates Lions, uncapped)
- Jean-Luc du Preez (Loose forward, Cell C Sharks, 13, 10 – 2t)
- Thomas du Toit (Prop, Cell C Sharks, 4, 0)
- Pieter-Steph du Toit (Lock / Loose forward, DHL Stormers, 36, 20 – 4t)
- Eben Etzebeth (Lock, DHL Stormers, 67, 15 – 3t)
- Steven Kitshoff (Prop, DHL Stormers, 27, 5 – 1t)
- Siya Kolisi (captain – Loose forward, DHL Stormers, 31, 20 – 4t)
- Francois Louw (Loose forward, Bath, England, 57, 45 – 9t)
- Wilco Louw (Prop, DHL Stormers, 7, 0)
- Frans Malherbe (Prop, DHL Stormers, 19, 0)
- Malcolm Marx (Hooker, Emirates Lions, 14, 15 – 3t)
- Bongi Mbonambi (Hooker, DHL Stormers, 16, 5 – 1t)
- Franco Mostert (Lock, Emirates Lions, 21, 5 – 1t)
- Tendai Mtawarira (Prop, Cell C Sharks, 101, 10 – 2t)
- Sikhumbuzo Notshe (Loose forward, DHL Stormers, 4, 0)
- Marvin Orie (Lock, Emirates Lions, 1, 0)
- RG Snyman (Lock, Vodacom Bulls, 3, 0)
- Akker van der Merwe (Hooker, Cell C Sharks, 3, 0)
- Marco van Staden (Loose forward, Vodacom Bulls, uncapped)
- Warren Whiteley (No 8, Emirates Lions, 17, 15 – 3t)
Backs :
- Lukhanyo Am (Centre, Cell C Sharks, 3, 0)
- Ross Cronjé (Scrumhalf, Emirates Lions, 10, 10 – 2t)
- Faf de Klerk (Scrumhalf, Sale Sharks, England, 14, 5 – 1t)
- Aphiwe Dyantyi (Wing, Emirates Lions, 3, 5 – 1t)
- André Esterhuizen (Centre, Cell C Sharks, 2, 0)
- Elton Janjies (Flyhalf, Emirates Lions, 26, 215 – 2t, 41c, 41p)
- Jesse Kriel (Centre, Vodacom Bulls, 32, 45 – 9t)
- Willie le Roux (Fullback, Wasps, England, 44, 55 – 11t)
- Makazole Mapimpi (Wing, Cell C Sharks, 1, 5 – 1t)
- Lionel Mapoe (Centre, Emirates Lions, 12, 0)
- Lwazi Mvovo (Wing, Cell C Sharks, 17, 30 – 6t)
- Embrose Papier (Scrumhalf, Vodacom Bulls, 2, 0)
- Handré Pollard (Flyhalf, Vodacom Bulls, 29, 246 – 3t, 42c, 46p, 3d)
- Ivan van Zyl (Scrumhalf, Vodacom Bulls, 3, 0)
- Damian Willemse (Flyhalf, DHL Stormers, uncapped)