Should I pay for Betting Tips?

Paid Betting Tips – Should I pay for Betting Tips?

Any punter who’s been in this game long enough would’ve come across the adverts online:
“Winning Betting Tips. Double your money in less than 3 months. Minimum 58% ROI Guaranteed!” they’ve then asked themselves, Should I pay for Betting Tips?

You might not look at these adverts with the same kind of scepticism as the latest Verimark TV ad, BUT YOU REALLY SHOULD. If a new pool cleaner you see advertised promises to suck up your leaves, climb out of the pool and into your bedroom, clean up the mess there, and then get into bed next to you and suck your…

Then it’s probably too good to be true.

But we all like the idea of making some easy money, so it’s hardly any surprise all of us have at some stage considered subscribing to the services of an “expert tipster” and asked ourselves the Should I pay for Betting Tips question.

Remember this: The very best betting tipsters make a 5-10% return on investment (ROI) over the long-term – and you have my honest-to-God word there really aren’t many of these guys around.

Perhaps a good first question to ask yourself before buying betting tips is why exactly you want to pay for information that’s readily available online? Is it because you don’t have the time or inclination to do the research and analyse historical data yourself? Fair enough. Then go for it, but choose your betting tipster wisely (we’ll tell you exactly how to do that in just a moment…)

FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Personally, I find great satisfaction in digging for a bet I like through solid research. I also feel far less annoyed if it loses – because at least I did my homework. Because the truth is that you can do all the research you like but Lady Luck is a cruel mistress. If you can’t get over that fact then sports betting definitely isn’t for you!

Next question – can you really trust in someone’s “knowledge” and “skill” to make you some money?

Well, the short answer is – yes.

BUT you what you need to realise is there are plenty guys out there charging for tips that MIGHT make you some money in the short-term, but very few in the long-term that are worth splashing out any cash for.

The main reason you need to be cautious about paying for “betting knowledge” is that tipsters prey on the allusion that handicapping is a hard-and-fast science. They want you to believe that making picks is a purely skill-based exercise where luck plays no part.

Bullshit. Sports betting is approximately 40% bankroll management, 40% luck and 20% skill!

But if a betting tipster might actually make me some money, then shouldn’t I pay for betting tips?

Well, I’m of the opinion that unless you aren’t interested in sport at all and don’t have any free time whatsoever to spend handicapping games yourself – then it’s not really worth it.

Handicapping is fairly straightforward and anyone can do it if they want to. All betting tipsters do is look at form, historical data and trends to make predictions about the future. It’s flimsy logic at best and they’re no guarantees.

If sports betting was a science a lot more people would become rich from it. The hard-to-swallow truth is that people who make a living from sports betting were all rich to begin with. Far more important than “skill” in sports betting, the main characteristic shared among successful sports bettors is that they’re sensible with their money.

So I ask you again – why would you pay somebody to predict the uncertain future on your behalf? Would you visit a creepy fortune-teller in a beaten-up caravan. No, I thought not.

HOW DO PAID BETTING TIPSTERS OPERATE?
So you’ve made the plunge and decided to employ the services of a tipster (My prayers are with you buddy…). How this usually works is that you pay a monthly subscription fee to them and they’ll send to you via email or instant message their best bets on whatever sport/s they specialise in.

Alternatively the tipster might take a percentage from your winnings. The good thing about this method is that you only pay for winning tips. So, for instance, if you win R1000 from a particular tip, they might earn a R100 cut of your profits. Along with their selections, tipsters might also give an indication of how confident they are in the bet, such as “3 Unit Play”, “Banker” or “Longshot”.

Things to look out for when choosing a tipster
The first thing you should realise before signing up is that it’s very easy for tipsters to hide their true betting record. Like most gamblers, they often talk up their wins and downplay their losses. Unless you consult first-hand a reliable source that uses their service, you’ll have to believe whatever it is they tell you about how much and how often they’ve won in the past. Eek!

The odds they beat and the length of their record
Assuming they’re honest about their record, the most important factors to consider when choosing a betting tipster are the average odds they bet on and how far back their tipping record goes.

If a tipster offers picks where the odds are between 1/5 (1.20) and 3/5 (1.60) but on average loses one bet in every three, then you’re likely to lose or break even at best in the long-term. No good.

You’re far better off using a tipster providing selections at odds around 9/10 (1.90) or slightly bigger who wins at least as many bests – if not more – than he loses.

But it’s not enough just to look at their ROI. You also need to consider the length of their tipping record. Anyone can be lucky enough to make three winning bets in a row at odds of 4/5 (1.80), 26/10 (3.6) and 4/1 (5.0), but even the world’s most consistent tipster will NEVER keep that up over 100 or even 10 bets.   

So never use a tipster who doesn’t publish a tipping record which shows the odds of their winning/losing bets as well as how many bets they’ve placed in total. Should I pay for Betting Tips from these types, hell no.

Content is key
Another important consideration is whether your tipster provides thorough analysis of matches to justify their betting tips. The legitimacy of a betting tipster is easily exposed when asked to discuss a game. If they don’t provide reviews, ask yourself why not? And even if they offer analysis – are they talking about how games are actually won or lost on the field, or sharing only big-picture historical trends that have little to do with the nitty-gritty of matches

The specialised tipster
It’s very difficult to beat high-volume markets such as the English Premier League and the NFL. There is so much information around that these odds and lines are sharp and represent very accurately the team’s realistic chances of winning. Only with a good dose of old-fashioned luck will you make any money betting these leagues in the long-term.

But if you find a tipster who specialises in let’s say Overs/Unders markets in 3rd division Icelandic football, he may actually be onto something. This guy might spend all of his time researching statistical data that suggests there’s value to found, which might be profitable in the long-term. The bookies will probably eventually catch onto this, but make hay while the sun shines! In this case the answer to Should I pay for Betting Tips is Yes, why not!

IN CONCLUSION
The bottom-line is that you probably shouldn’t pay for betting tips unless the tipster has a proven record and is transparent. You won’t necessarily do any better than if you find the time to make educated bets yourself. Lastly, if you’re not confident in your own ability, there are plenty free tipsters with winning records who’re in it for the love and not the money. So Should I pay for betting tips? Well we feel we’ve given you enough info to make your own decision!

We hope you enjoyed our Should I pay for Betting Tips article and if you have any questions or feedback then fire away!

You can check out our Free Tipsters Page here.