The Odds of Corona from a Betting Perspective

Disclaimer : The author of this article is not a medical professional, advice included in this post is from government organisations relating to the outbreak, including the CDC, South African Government and the WHO. Should you suspect you have the Corona virus please contact the South African Coronavirus Hotline on 0800 029 999.

The Coronavirus, or COVID-19 is all anyone can talk about at the moment. What apparently started at a wildlife market in the Chinese city of Wuhan two months ago has now infected—as of this very moment—137,674 people, and counting. The World Health Organization recently declared the Coronavirus outbreak a “pandemic” acknowledging the virus will likely spread to every country in the world. It’s still early days and the numbers are expected to increase over the coming weeks.

Sporting events around the globe have been cancelled, including popular sports like Premier League Football, NBA and the Masters. In fact, most leagues have decided to help slow the spread of the virus by suspending events. Which is bad news for sports fans and sports bettors as we’re unlikely to see any sport on our television until Corona is under control.

The Odds of Coronavirus

So naturally, the question on everyone’s mind is, “What are the chances that I get the Coronavirus?” Well, you might be surprised by the answer. Right now (12 March), if you live in South Africa, where there are only 16 infections (This number will rise), you have a 1 in 3,750,000 chance of contracting Coronavirus. Imagine winning a 3,750,000/1 bet, well those are the odds of getting it at the moment.

Of course, it’s important to remember this is an in-play bet in that these odds can change drastically depending on factors like how many undiagnosed cases there are in South Africa and how many locals become infected by visitors from abroad. But, if we were to contain the virus today, the chances of contracting the disease for anybody, but especially people living in South Africa are INCREDIBLY SMALL at the moment. By following lock down regulations we can help keep those odds in our favour!

Put it this way, you have better odds of guessing the correct score of 8 soccer games in an accumulator than of getting the Coronavirus at the moment, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore the warnings! It’s hard enough predicting the correct score of one match, now imagine how difficult it is to predict the final score of 8 games on one bet slip!

So, let’s imagine the worst-case scenario. You’re lying in bed at home feeling sorry for yourself having contracted the Coronavirus. You can’t believe it. You read this stupid blog post on BSB which said your odds of getting the Coronavirus were ridiculously low. But here you are, sick with the virus. You think of all the money you could have made if only your good luck was as off-the-charts as your bad luck. If you had bet just R1 on that 8-leg soccer accumulator you could be filthy rich, but instead, you’re now looking death in the face. Or are you?

So, of the 137,674 people who have contracted the Coronavirus worldwide so far (March 2020), just 5,080 of them have died. That translates to only 3.69% of people or odds of 26/1. That’s about the same odds of Liverpool losing at home to Norwich City by at least two goals. Almost never going to happen, right!?

But that’s still not the whole story. Let’s dig into the numbers a little more. The 3.69% chance you have of dying from the Coronavirus (only if you were unlucky enough to get it in the first place) doesn’t take into account your age or health. Most of the Coronavirus deaths have been people with pre-existing medical conditions over 65 years old. For the age group of 21-49 years that mostly visits our site, the death rate for people infected with the Coronavirus is just 0.3%, compared to a 1 in 5 chance (20%) if you’re over 80 years old. So, if you’re reasonably healthy and aren’t yet a pensioner, your chances of surviving the Coronavirus are extremely good!

Stay safe and wash those hands

We like to have a bit of fun around here, but as a word of caution, you should still take this disease seriously. Compared to other diseases like Tuberculosis and HIV/Aids, the death rate from the Coronavirus is extremely low right now, but that can change quickly. We haven’t yet found a vaccine for the Coronavirus and we also don’t know its potential for it to mutate into something nastier!

My gut feeling is that we’ll manage to contain the disease, find a vaccine and before long we’ll all be getting jabs for the Coronavirus just like we do for the flu each year. It will become a manageable part of our everyday lives. In the meantime, keep washing your hands, folks!

What to do if you suspect you have the Coronavirus

If you are a South Africa and suspect you might be infected with the Coronavirus then there are a few steps you need to take.

Firstly you’ll need to contact the South Africa Coronavirus hotline on 0800 029 999 who will be able to advise you on the steps to take and where to get tested. Below are the recommendations from the CDC on what to should you contract the virus.

  • Stay home: People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to isolate at home during their illness. You should restrict activities outside your home, except for getting medical care.
  • Avoid public areas:Do not go to work, school, or public areas.
  • Avoid public transportation: Avoid using public transportation, ride-sharing, or taxis.
  • Stay away from others: As much as possible, you should stay in a specific room and away from other people in your home. Also, you should use a separate bathroom, if available.
  • Limit contact with pets & animals: You should restrict contact with pets and other animals while you are sick with COVID-19, just like you would around other people. Although there have not been reports of pets or other animals becoming sick with COVID-19, it is still recommended that people sick with COVID-19 limit contact with animals until more information is known about the virus.
  • When possible, have another member of your household care for your animals while you are sick. If you are sick with COVID-19, avoid contact with your pet, including petting, snuggling, being kissed or licked, and sharing food. If you must care for your pet or be around animals while you are sick, wash your hands before and after you interact with pets and wear a facemask. See COVID-19 and Animals for more information.
  • Call ahead: If you have a medical appointment, call the healthcare provider and tell them that you have or may have COVID-19. This will help the healthcare provider’s office take steps to keep other people from getting infected or exposed.
  • If you are sick: You should wear a facemask when you are around other people (e.g., sharing a room or vehicle) or pets and before you enter a healthcare provider’s office.
  • If you are caring for others: If the person who is sick is not able to wear a facemask (for example, because it causes trouble breathing), then people who live with the person who is sick should not stay in the same room with them, or they should wear a facemask if they enter a room with the person who is sick.
  • Cover: Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
  • Dispose: Throw used tissues in a lined trash can.
  • Wash hands: Immediately wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or, if soap and water are not available, clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol.
  • Wash hands Properly: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing; going to the bathroom; and before eating or preparing food.
  • Hand sanitizer: If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol, covering all surfaces of your hands and rubbing them together until they feel dry.
  • Soap and water: Soap and water are the best option if hands are visibly dirty.
  • Avoid touching: Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.

Source – CDC

Sporting Events Cancelled due to Coronavirus

Sports events that have been suspended due to the Coronavirus have been listed below. You can read the full article on suspended league on Hollywoodbets.

The Italian Serie A was the first to make a cancellation announcement, suspending all football matches until 3 April. The German Bundesliga was the second to respond by also cancelling fixtures.

All UEFA competitions, including Champions League and Europa League matches, have been postponed because of the outbreak.

The English Premier League followed suit and suspended their matches as well. “The FA, Premier League, EFL, and Barclays FA Women’s Super League and FA Women’s Championship have collectively agreed to postpone the professional game in England until 3 April at the earliest.”

Here are some of the soccer leagues that have been suspended:

1. Austria – Bundesliga, Championship Round, Bundesliga, Relegation Round, Erste Liga, Regionalliga East, Regionalliga Centre.

2. Belgium – Beker van Belgie, First Division B, Promotion Playoffs, Pro League.

3. Colombia – Liga Postobon.

4. Croatia – 1. HNL, 2. HNL.

5. Czech – 1. Liga, CFL, Group A, CFL, Group B, FNL, U19 1st Division.

6. Denmark – Danish Football League.

7. England – Premier League, EFL and Barclays FA Women’s Super League and Barclays FA Women’s Super League.

8. France – Ligue 1, Ligue 2

9. Germany – Bundesliga (17 March to 2 April)

10. Greece – Super League 1, Championship Round.

11. Itay – Serie A, Serie B

12. Japan – Japan J League

13. Lithuanian – A Lyga.

14. Netherlands – Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie.

15. Portugal – Primeira Liga, Segunda Liga, U23 Championship.

16. Spain – La Liga, Segunda Division

17. Romania – Liga 2, Liga 1, Relegation, Liga 1, Championship round.

18. Slovakia – 2 Liga, Superliga, Championship round, Superliga, Relegation round.

19. Slovenia – PrvaLiga.

20. USA – MLS

21. International – The Asian qualifiers for the Qatar World Cup in 2022

Other affected sports:

GOLF

Cancelled: PLAYERS Championship – cancelled after round one
Postponed: All PGA Tour events
Postponed: European Tour’s Hero Indian Open
Postponed: The European Tour’s Kenya Open, due to take place between 12-15 March
Cancelled: The Czech Masters, scheduled from August 20-23
Cancelled: Kenya Open
Cancelled: Maybank Championship, April
Cancelled: China Open
Postponed: Women’s first major of the year, the ANA Inspiration

RUGBY UNION
Postponed: Six Nations – Italy v England, Saturday March 14
Postponed: Six Nations – France v Ireland, Saturday March 14
Postponed: Six Nations – Ireland v Italy, March 7
Postponed: Women’s Six Nations – Wales v Scotland, March 15
Postponed: Women’s Six Nations – France v Ireland, March 15
Postponed: Women’s Six Nations – Italy v England, March 15
Postponed: Women’s Six Nations – Scotland v France, March 7
Postponed: Women’s Six Nations – Italy v Scotland, February 23
Postponed: Women’s Six Nations – Ireland v Italy, March 8
Suspended: Guinness PRO14 season

TENNIS
Cancelled: Miami Open
Suspended: ATP tournaments six-week suspension until April 20 at the earliest
Suspended: The International Tennis Federation suspension of tournaments until April 20 at the earliest
Cancelled: The Volvo Car Open in Charleston, April 4-12.
Cancelled: The WTA Copa Colsanitas in Bogota
Cancelled: WTA 125k event in Guadalajara
Postponed: The Fed Cup finals in Budapest from 14-18 April and other Fed Cup play-offs ties on the weekend of 17 and 18 April

CRICKET
Cancelled: England’s tour of Sri Lanka
Delayed: Indian Premier League start has been postponed from March 29 to April 15
Behind-closed-doors: India and South Africa two ODI’s
Behind-closed-doors: Australia and New Zealand three ODI’s

MOTORSPORT
Postponed: Formula One Australian Grand Prix, April 15
Postponed: Formula One China Grand Prix, April 19
Behind-closed-doors: The Bahrain Grand Prix, 20-22 March
Cancelled: Formula E race in Jakarta on 6 June
Postponed: Formula E race, The Rome E-Prix, scheduled for 4 April.
Cancelled: MotoGP Qatar race
Postponed: MotoGP season races in Thailand, the United States and Argentina
Postponed: World Superbike Spanish round of the series, scheduled for 27-29 March, postponed until 23-25 October

 

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